Wednesday, October 23, 2013

What is a Fiscal Deficit?

Definition:- Fiscal deficit is the difference between the government’s expenditures and its revenues (excluding the money it’s borrowed). A country’s fiscal deficit is usually communicated as a percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Every year, the Government puts out a plan for it's income and expenditure for the coming year. This is, of course, the annual Union Budget. A  budget  is said  to  have a fiscal deficit when the Government's expenditure exceeds it's income. When this happens, the Government needs additional funds. Now there are two ways for the Government to arrange these funds. The first is, of course, to borrow. The Government can borrow either from  the citizens themselves or from other countries or organisations like the World Bank or the IMF. The money borrowed by a nation's Government is called public debt. As on any other debt, the Government promises to pay a certain rate of interest. To pay this interest in the future, the Government has three options:

1. increase the amount of taxes collected by increasing the tax rates;
2. help stimulate economic growth so that tax collection automatically increases with it; or
3. print new currency notes to  pay  back the debt – also called debt monetization.

We can all agree that the first option is not desirable. That leaves the second and third options. While the second option sounds like the best one, it is easier said than done. We will see presently why the third option is dangerous and can act like an unfair and invisible tax on the people of a country. To do so, we will begin with a very simple model of a national economy.

Suppose that there is  only  one commodity that everyone needs to buy in order to live a good life – say wheat. Also, assume that our country produces ten thousand quintals of wheat every year. There are a total of twenty­five thousand people in the country who spend Rs. 400 each per year to buy wheat. Thus total amount of money spent to buy wheat is Rs. 1 crore. Since this Rs. 1 crore is spent to purchase ten 
thousand quintals of wheat, the cost of wheat is Rs. 1,000 per quintal.

Now suppose that to repay some of it's debt, the Government decides to print some new currency notes. Say the Government prints new notes worth Rs. 10 lacs. This means the amount  of money available to spend increases from Rs.  1  crore to Rs.  1.1 crores.  Since the amount  of wheat produced hasn't increased, each tonne of wheat now costs Rs.  1,100, a  10% increase!  (1.1 crores  paid  for ten thousand quintals = Rs. 1,100 per quintal).  So we have just seen that the effect of debt monetization is inflation,which 
acts like an invisible tax on all the people of a country.

So  does that mean that  fiscal  deficits are evil? Well,not necessarily. If the money that the Government had borrowed was used to increase the amount of wheat production, then the inflation could have been avoided. To see how, we assume that the Government used the borrowed money to improve the irrigation facilities in the country. Also suppose that this programme led to an increase in wheat production from 10,000 quintals to 11,000 quintals. In that case, even with an increase of money to 1.1 crores, the cost of wheat would  remain  steady at Rs.  1,000  per  quintal. Thus we'd have economic growth and also avoid inflation. Everybody would be better off. Clearly then, it was a good thing that the Government borrowed money to implement this programme.

It is thus clear that a fiscal deficit is not necessarily a bad thing. However, a large and persistent fiscal deficit can be an indication of several worrying signs in the economy. It can mean that the Government is spending money on unproductive programmes which do not increase economic productivity. It can also mean that the tax collection machinery is not effective so that a significant proportion of people get away without paying their due taxes. In any case, a large fiscal deficit significantly increases the chances of inflation in the economy which is an invisible tax on every citizen. In  extreme  conditions, inflation can give way to hyper­inflation that can completely destroy  a country.  In milder forms, high inflation and a large fiscal deficit lead to a weaker national currency (imports become expensive) and reduce the credit­worthiness of the country.

As citizens, therefore, we must not only pay attention to the fiscal deficit, we must also try and understand the different areas of Government spending. Is the Government borrowing money to spend on programmes that lead to increased economic productivity or is it spending on unproductive programmes. Remember, even directly giving money (or amenities) to sections of people, without creating conditions for them to be more economically productive is dangerous because of the reasons seen above.

What are the causes of fiscal deficit?

Government spending, inflation and lower revenue are among some of the main factors that point to fiscal deficit.One way the government earns money, is through taxes. For example, if the government lowered taxes or provided tax concessions to a particular group of people, then it would earn less, leading to an increase in fiscal deficit. And that’s one of the reasons why you will find the government giving a face-lift to the tax structures. In the same context, cutting of custom duty and excise duty will lead to declining revenues.

Like India, many developing countries are making an effort to resolve big fiscal deficits. On the bright side, for India, among other sources of revenue, foreign investments and inflow of remittance s from Indians living overseas has helped avoid very high deficits.

Fiscal deficit does not come about only in case of creating less revenue and spending more money. Another major reason for a growing fiscal deficit can be slow economic growth or sluggish economic activities.

Difference between fiscal deficit and budget deficit

Budget deficit is commonly known as the national debt. Budget deficit means that a country has more money going out when compared to the money its earning. Budget deficits can usually be resolved by raising taxes, cutting spending or a combination of both. Unlike fiscal deficit, while calculating budget deficit, the country’s borrowings are taken into consideration. India’s budget deficit last fiscal year was 4.9 percent of gross domestic product.

In case of fiscal deficit, it can be measured without taking into account the interest it pays on its debt. Fiscal deficit is basically the difference between the money it spends and the money it makes.

Difference between fiscal deficit and current account deficit(CAD)

Fiscal deficit is a percentage of the nation’s GDP and can be considered as an economic event in which the government expenditure exceeds its revenue. Meanwhile, CAD occurs when the country’s imports are greater than the country’s exports of goods, services and transfers.

After India’s current account deficit hit a historic high of 6.7 percent of GDP in Q3 of last fiscal year(2011-2012), it was at 5 percent of the GDP in the year ended March(2012-2013), making the rupee weak and also making way for lower interest rates.

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